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“Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million by 2030.”

The crunch may be coming even sooner than he thought. The Basel Board may have to add the car industry to the mix. There will be losers. Whole countries will spin into crisis. The world’s geopolitical order will be reshaped almost overnight. But humanity as a whole should enjoy an enormous welfare gain.

The TaaS disruption poses existential threats to the oil industry. Our findings indicate that global oil demand will peak around 2020 at about 100 million barrels per day, falling to about 70 mbpd by 2030 (see Figure 11). The effects of such a dramatic decrease will ripple through the whole value chain, causing systemic disruption from oil fields to pipelines to refineries.


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