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Timing and preparing for peak demand are critical to companies’ fortunes. Energy producers could move too fast to adapt to shifts that are still years away. Or new technologies and policies could leave them vulnerable to changes that happen sooner than expected.

Peak demand is already arriving in some regions. In Europe, for instance, the IEA sees consumption most likely falling to 10.8 million barrels a day by the end of the decade from 11.7 million barrels a day in 2015.